Cindicator is a fintech company that is working to create the social and technological infrastructure needed to make effective decisions under the volatile conditions of the new economy.
By combining a large number of diverse financial analysts and a set of machine learning models into a single system, we are developing a Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure for the efficient management of investors' capital in traditional financial and cryptomarkets.
- Cindicator creates questions in the mobile app.
- Forecasters make predictions on a daily basis, answering a number of specific questions about the price levels of different financial assets, macroeconomic indices, and events that significantly influence the market.
- Right after the question closes (at the deadline), the artificial intelligence system synthesises accurate forecasts using machine learning algorithms based on the statistics accumulated through forecasters' predictions.
Machine learning models dynamically calculate various weights for each forecaster, identify stable systematics in their errors, calculate corrections for the errors, eliminate noise, and generate final predictions and trading signals.
Yes, there are several products that already completed and ready to use. These include a collective intelligence platform (Cindicator app for Android and iOS), trading signals, API for hedge funds, price-related signals, probabilistic signals, and arbitrage bots.
The Cindicator app is the mobile platform which we launched in December 2015, and where thousands of analysts generate various forecasts daily, answering a number of specific questions, for example:
- Create a forecast of the minimum and maximum price levels of Bitcoin for the coming seven days.
- Will the Tesla stock price surge to $345 during market hours on Friday?
- Will the US unemployment rate be greater than or equal to 4.5%, according to the 2 June report?
- Will Bancor collect more than $100M during the first week of its ICO?
- What is the probability of Trump’s impeachment in the next three months?
The main problem in current financial analytics is centralisation. This is because analysts cluster their forecasts and opinions in open access and these opinions impact on the opinions of other analysts.
Decentralisation is one of the many key elements we are working on in the context of the wisdom of the crowd. Figuratively speaking, the suggestion from each unique person contains two types of information: a useful signal and unique chaotic noise. Cindicator cuts through this centralisation bias by aggregating opinion from a wide range of diverse forecasters from different countries with various professional backgrounds, and with different personal experience. After we have combined lots of different suggestions, we obtain useful signal amplification, and noises mutually cancel out themselves as they are unique and can be quite random. When people don’t discuss the problem before making a suggestion they are unlikely to include alien biases in suggestions, and preserve the uniqueness of their subjectivity – their personal noise – so that aggregate noise will be at zero and the signal will be accurate.
The issuance of our own infrastructure tokens is conditioned by the need to create an internal economy in the ecosystem that will establish transparent and fair relations among all participants making up the system: forecasters/analysts, traders, financial investors, data scientists, and the Cindicator team.
The token is also called Cindicator (CND). Unlike proof-of-work blockchains such as Bitcoin, there is no mining in Cindicator.
Cindicator tokens are ERC-20 compatible tokens distributed on the Ethereum blockchain pursuant to a related ERC-20 smart contract (“CND Tokens”).
To participate in Cindicator Token distribution, all you need is any Ethereum wallet compatible with ERC20 tokens. Do not send ether (“ETH”) directly from cryptocurrency exchanges, use only an ETH compatible wallet.
Due to legal reasons we cannot offer CND tokens for citizens, permanent residents and owners of primary residence or domicile in the USA (including Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands or any other US territories).
The answer is this simple: we are a technological company and specialize in Hybrid Intelligence technologies. We create infrastructure and products based on it, and those products and infrastructure, and the data they yield can be used by hedge funds or other companies with financial expertise. This way it’s a mutually beneficial business. We don't want to try to enter the completely different field of big finance. In other words, it’s a question that could equally be addressed to Bloomberg, for example. To be completely accurate, we do use our signals for our own benefit, but this is a very small part of the Cindicator business model.
By buying tokens, CND token holders will get exclusive access to part of the Hybrid Intelligence infrastructure being developed. Holders of CND infrastructure tokens will receive a different level of access to Cindicator’s indicators, ratings, and internal analytical products. Token holders will be able to access the following parts of the infrastructure:
- indicators of traditional markets and cryptomarkets (the probability of a rise or fall in asset prices, the probability of beating consensus in corporate and macroeconomic events, indicators of certain price levels being reached, and indicators of the probability of significant events influencing the market);
- auxiliary service products for trading (Telegram and Slack bots, notifiers, and portfolio monitoring products);
- analytical products (ICO ratings, market condition analysis, ICO due diligence, and investor portfolio analysis);
- market indices and sentiments generated by Hybrid Intelligence.
The fact that token holders can use data from the analytical infrastructure products will not affect the value of the data received from Hybrid Intelligence, as each indicator or index is not an unambiguous trading signal, but only an additional metric in the market that helps in the analysis of an investment decision. These data and analytical products will assist token holders and make the ecosystem more transparent. A part of the infrastructure intended to be used directly in capital management (by traders' teams, machine learning models, and trading strategies) will remain in the centralised part of the system. This is necessary in order to make sure that Hybrid Intelligence can be used as efficiently as possible in the next stage, when interested funds will be provided with access to the entire infrastructure (for more detailed information, please see section 4.6 of our White Paper).
Cindicator is not a prediction market. We differ in infrastructure, goals and our business model: we enhance the collective intelligence of our forecasters with artificial intelligence. Prediction markets usually just gather opinions. We aim to create Hybrid Intelligence – an effective combination of the human mind and machine intelligence. Prediction markets aim to make correct predictions. We create products for financial markets – not only forecasts and signals, but also strategies, indices, sentiments, trading bots and tools, and SaaS products. Thus our clients and source of income are financial market players. Prediction markets focus on predictions, and for many of them analytics are an important part of cash inflow. We on the other hand have never made or plan to make our forecasters risk their own money.
No, Cindicator is a technological ecosystem that also creates a number of products for traders and hedge funds. Cindicator’s ultimate goal is to set up a decentralised intellectual technology that effectively implements the potential of Hybrid Intelligence to the benefit of all participants of the ecosystem. In the future the technology strives to be fully automated: the only resource necessary for it to function will be the mental investment made by the analysts.
Usually we don’t expect crowds to be wise. However, a crowd doesn’t necessarily mean a chaotic and impulsive mass. In the case of Cindicator, the ‘crowd’ consists of independent financial analysts from all corners of the Earth. We could call it consensus, but the word we use refers to the well-known concept of “the wisdom of the crowd”. A famous example: in 1906, British scientist Francis Galton came to a rural fair where visitors were invited to guess the weight of a bull put on public display and to write this figure on a special ticket, apparently just for entertainment. The organisers of the show promised prizes for those who managed to guess the correct figure. Thus, about 800 people – some of them professional farmers, others far from pastoral affairs – took part in the voting. After collecting all the tickets for analysis after the fair, Galton calculated the average arithmetic value from the entire sample: 1197 pounds. The actual weight of the bull was 1198 pounds. An astonishing result, isn’t it? In order to make the wisdom of the crowd work, a few things must be secured:
- Analytics must look at the situation independently and provide an answer privately – otherwise they risk becoming influenced by some opinion or other and produce biased results;
- The group of people must be large. The more people, the more accurate their consensus;
- Questions must be formulated in quantitative way.
Watch a five-minute video where Oxford professor Marcus du Sautoy explains how a group of people knows more than one individual.
Cindicator has already acquired around $570,000 of investments from angels and venture funds. We also received $140,000 worth of grants for technologies from Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon.
The Cindicator team has been created through a synergy of like-minded people with a variety of expertise in maths, data science and finance working together as a single collective mind. About 85% of the team members are graduates of top STEM universities. We understand the value of building the right team, community, and ecosystem. We are actively expanding the scientific community around our infrastructure, business and ecosystem, giving access to our work and technologies so that we can act together to solve important and pressing issues.
Cindicator has a strong Board of Advisors: Charlie Shrem – Chief Operating Officer at Jaxx, Cofounder of Bitcoin Foundation Etienne Brunet – Investment Executive at Illuminate Financial Reese Jones – Associate Founder at Singularity University Simone Giacomelli – Founder at Vulpem Stepan Gershuni – General Partner at bits.capital Anton Govor – Managing Director, Head of Strategy at Moscow Exchange Andrei Rusakov – Partner, Co-founder at Data Capital Management Marcus Killick – СEO ISOLAS LLP law firm, Chairman Gibraltar Stock Exchange Julian Zegelman – Corporate Attorney, Partner at Velton • Zegelman PC Boris Ryabov – Managing partner at Bright Capital
Crowd indicator: we refer to the famous “wisdom of the crowd” concept. In a nutshell, it means that a group of people is more likely to provide the right answer than a single person. Hence crowd indicator – an indicator of collective intelligence.