Crowd Indicator

The Crowd Indicator (“C” indicator) shows the average opinion of a diverse group of people which in 80% of cases is always more accurate than the forecast of a single expert in any professional field.
The crowd is smart
WHAT IS FORECASTING FOR?
SOLUTIONS

The crowd is smart

At heart, the theory of "The Wisdom of the Crowd" (article on Wikipedia) rests on a mathematical truism. If you ask a large enough group of diverse and independent people to make a prediction and then aggregate those estimates and consider different errors, they mutually average each other to create a more accurate ultimate prediction.
Therefore, if a group satisfies those above conditions, it's average judgement is likely to be accurate.

Decentralization
In our platform users don't have an opportunity to discuss anything with each other. Also, they can’t see the other forecasts.
Therefore, people's opinions are not influenced by the opinions of those around them. People are able to specialize and draw on their own knowledge and experience.
These factors make it possible to get the most independent opinion of every our forecaster.
Diversity of the group
We have gathered thousands of people with different professional background from different social groups within our platform. From students to professors, from generation Y to X.
Each person should have some unique insight into information, even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.
In this way, we avoid the trap of groupthink: a non-diverse group of people bases its judgement on the same (albeit differently formulated) information.
Aggregation of opinions
In 80% of cases, groups of diverse and independent people give more accurate predictions than individuals.
Our platform aggregates the collective wisdom of the crowd to give a rational forecast by calculating the average opinion of a group of people.
Thus obtained probability, which shows a chance of (completing or not completing) an event occurring in the future, is the Crowd Indicator.
MOTIVATION FOR FORECASTERS
In order to motivate people to make predictions every day and with the greatest precision, we have created a strong motivation system that includes:
1. Money motivation: every month we divide the cash prize fund among 2% of the most successful forecasters.
2. Gamification: users can challenge their friends and compete with players from all over the world by predicting the news outcomes.

WHAT IS FORECASTING FOR?

Every day our analysts add to the platform new questions about the most relevant global and local events that have a significant impact on the financial and political markets.

STOCK EXCHANGE
Future events and news that may directly or indirectly affect the share prices of companies (Apple, Facebook, Alibaba etc.) that are traded on the stock exchange.
Also, we ask direct questions about future changes in the value of certain shares.
COMMODITY EXCHANGE
Future events and news that may directly or indirectly affect the price of products (oil, gold, sugar etc.) that are traded on the commodity exchange.
Also, we ask direct questions about future changes in the value of certain products.
FOREX MARKET
Future events and news that may directly or indirectly affect the price of currencies (USD, EUR, GBP etc.) that are traded on the foreign exchange market.
Also, we ask direct questions about future changes in the value of certain currencies.
GEOPOLITICS & ELECTIONS
Global and local political events that could potentially have a significant impact on financial markets. There can be different variations of these events such as military conflicts, elections, civil unrests, economic sanctions, relations between countries and individual politicians.

SOLUTIONS

There are many potential ways in which “Crowd” indicator can be applied.
High precision and the ability to quickly get the forecast for any event make it very valuable for many business verticals.

NEW INDEPENDENT INSIGHTS FOR YOUR TRADING STRATEGIES
Use "Crowd" indicator as a rational forecast derived from aggregating predictions of an independent and diverse group of people.
This independent indicator in 80% of cases reflects a more reliable picture of the future on the financial and the political markets.
CONFIRM YOUR HYPOTHESES
Collective decisions are correct and effective when they are made by people with different opinions based on different sources of information and expertise.
Use the collective wisdom, which we aggregate on our "Cindicator app" platform, to confirm your own forecasts.
ENRICH YOUR CURRENT ANALYTICS
Use “Crowd” indicator as an additional index in conjunction with your basic analytical tools.
This bundle will increase the accuracy of your future decisions, in particular in regards to the events on which there is not enough analytics available at the moment.
ANTICIPATE THE MOVEMENT OF THE CROWDS AND MARKETS
With daily access to “Crowd” indicator, you will always be one step ahead of future changes in the market. Direct connection to the collective mind will allow you to make better decisions.

How it works

We have launched a mobile application "Cindicator app" available for any users which provide the most efficient way to connect to the Collective Intelligence and collect valuable signals and forecasts.
Cindicator APPLICATION
MOTIVATION FOR USERS
PREDICTION TECHNOLOGY
SUPERFORECASTERS
Cindicator appLICATION
Every day our users receive a list of the most topical financial or political news the outcome of which will happen in the nearest future.
The challenge for users is to predict the outcome of those events and be on the top 2% of the ranking among the most successful forecasters to be able to win a cash prize fund.

MOTIVATION FOR USERS
We have achieved a very high activity of “Cindicator app” users to predict the future with the greatest possible accuracy of every individual forecaster employing the two strongest motivation systems.
1. Money motivation: every month we divide the cash prize fund among 2% of the most successful forecasters.
2. Gamification: users can challenge their friends and compete with players from all over the world by predicting the news outcomes.
PREDICTION TECHNOLOGY
Each user makes predictions concerning the probability of events occurring in the future.
“Crowd” indicator is measured by calculating the mean value of probability based on forecasts collected from all users across the platform "Cindicator app".
Data on the average forecast from all users in real time are stored on our server.
SUPERFORECASTERS
Superforecasters are the people whose predictions in the long term are always more accurate than those of all other people or experts.
With the help of our platform, we can effectively and quickly find superforecasters in differents thematic areas.
Accordingly, you have the opportunity to work individually with them and get "Supreforecasters” indicator which is calculated only on the basis of predictions by superforecasters.
Read the article on Wikipedia.

HOW TO USE

We show how to use crowd indicators for trading and investing by making public deals in our trading account. We don’t want our customers to follow it blindly or to make trades using crowd indicator only. Our goal is to provide additional signals to traders, investors, and analysts who are interested in financial, sport and political predictions.

Performance since July 2016

HOW TO USE

GET ACCESS

We provide full access to our collective intelligence platform for hedge funds, private equity funds, and investments firms. Our clients also receive access to all historical forecasting data, our methodologies and help in the interpretation of data to their investments and trading strategies. To launch the pilot with your company, please click the button and fill the form below.

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